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UBS Investment Research, October 2011
UnitedHealth Strength Continues into 2012
- A final look at the 2012 national accounts landscape
We surveyed 53 national benefit consultants to gain further insight into the capabilities and potential winners / losers among health plans as the 2012 national accounts selling season winds down and MCOs head into Q3 earnings where we expect plans to provide incremental color around 2012 national account membership growth expectations as the selling season comes to a close.
- UNH remains in the top spot in terms of market share gains
Consistent with our early look back in May, UNH appears poised for another year of robust enrollment growth for 2012 in the eyes of our consultants. In addition to survey-leading market share expectations for 2012, UNH continued to see gains in customer service, provider networks and is now appears to be making aggressive moves to carve in drug benefits given expiration of the Medco contract.
- CI continues to improve while AET still trails the pack
CI slipped past WLP/Blues for the #2 market share expectation in our May survey, with updated results now solidifying their spot just slightly behind UNH & we now model Q1’12 Service enrollment up 300k (100k improved from our previous est)..AET shows some improvement, but lags peers, with our results confirming co. commentary of -500k membership decline for Q1’12. While service scores lead pack, sub-optimal discounts are primary reason AET continues to lose share.
- Other focus areas include reform, cost shifting, & early read on 2013
Look for more detail around 2012 competitive landscape and employer strategies, as well as potential reform implications, on consultant conf call (dial-in below).
We will be hosting a conference call with several senior Hewitt consultants to review survey conclusions:
Date: Friday, October 14th at 11 am ET
Dial-in: (888) 391-0101, passcode 21542703
Replay: (800) 633-8284, passcode 21542703
Global Equity Research
Americas
Healthcare Providers
Sector Comment
13 October 2011
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
Justin Lake, CFA
Analyst
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+1-212-713 2765
Ken LaVine, CFA
Analyst
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+1-212-713 4237
Andrew Valen
Associate Analyst
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+1-212-713 2717
Brittany Commins
Associate Analyst
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+1-212-713 0000
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